The futility of decision making research

We have each spent more than 50 years doing research that has had little impact. Even more lamentable is that our field, judgment and decision making (JDM), has on the whole had little impact during that span. We attribute that failure to the use of methodologies that emphasize testing models rather than looking for differences in behavior. The “cognitive revolution” led the field astray, toward the goal of studying model fit rather than comparing observable results. With modeling as the goal, experimentation was stultified. Simple tasks became dominant. Although a poor metaphor for real decision making, the gambling paradigm has lasted forever because the inputs to the decision are known to the researcher and thus easily modeled.     

公众参与大气污染治理的意愿及促进对策研究

调动公众参与大气污染治理工作是改善空气质量的重要抓手.通过开展问卷调查,在客观描述公众参与大气污染治理现状的基础上,运用二元Logistic模型实证分析公众参与大气污染治理的意愿情况.研究结果显示:公众参与大气污染治理的意愿较高,但实际参与大气污染治理工作并不普遍;虽然公众认为应由政府和污染企业承担治理的主要责任,但多数公众愿意为大气污染治理平均每月出资1～30元;公众参与治理的意愿受到空气质量满意度、关注度及改善需求等变量的正向影响,却受到年龄变量的反向影响,因此,为提高公众参与治理的意愿,应加快创造条件、营造环境,为公众参与治理提供保障,强化公众对空气质量的关注度,激发公众对改善空气质量的需求.最后,要着力构建多渠道、多层面的大气污染治理信息交流模式,健全公众参与大气污染治理工作机制.     

150t冷藏船模型制作研究

该文主要针对教科书中出现的150t冷藏船实例进行船体模型制作研究，在搜集了150t冷藏船的相关数据后，通过分析其基本结构图、总布置图后，结合绘制的型线图、船体相关信息文件，肋位的划分，绘出全宽肋骨型线图，并针对每一肋位的全宽肋骨型线图，设计其肋板、肋骨、横梁的具体结构、尺寸，最后按照分段划分图，对分段结构进行设计与建造。在模型的制作过程中，每一分段的装配都以《船舶建造工艺学》里的建造工艺流程为依据并结合实际情况进行模型制作，最后进行整船的合拢。     

基于DLENN模型的沈阳地区PM2.5浓度预测

受到重工业发展规模、北温带季风气候、秋冬季燃煤取暖、机动车拥堵状况以及微观气象条件等各种因素影响,沈阳地区PM2.5浓度变化具有趋势性、周期性及随机性特征。针对上述三种特征,论文构建了一种集成双向长短期记忆网络的神经网络预测模型DLENN(Double-LSTM Ensemble Neural Network),内含的两个方向LSTM分别刻画PM2.5浓度变化趋势性和周期性,然后采用线性回归杂合神经网络来捕捉PM2.5浓度变化的随机性。基于沈阳地区11个监测站2016至2017年空气质量和气象条件数据,本文将DLENN模型分别与自回归移动平均ARIMA模型、支持向量机SVM模型、随机森林RF模型和梯度提升树GBDT集成学习方法进行对比实验,结果表明DLENN预测模型稳定优于其他方法,其预测误差RMSE相对于ARIMA、SVM和集成模型分别下降了9.23%、3.83%、5.49%.     

New theories for new instruments: Fabrizio Mordente's proportional compass and the genesis of Giordano Bruno's atomist geometry

The aim of this article is to shed light on an understudied aspect of Giordano Bruno's intellectual biography, namely, his career as a mathematical practitioner. Early interpreters, especially, have criticized Bruno's mathematics for being “outdated” or too “concrete”. However, thanks to developments in the study of early modern mathematics and the rediscovery of Bruno's first mathematical writings (four dialogues on Fabrizio's Mordente proportional compass), we are in a position to better understand Bruno's mathematics. In particular, this article aims to reopen the question of whether Bruno anticipated the concept of infinitesimal quantity. It does so by providing an analysis of the dialogues on Mordente's compass and of the historical circumstances under which those dialogues were written.     

黎曼猜想什么时候会被证明出来?

首先从对数学猜想证明的理解得出了影响证明数学猜想的两个重要因素,即数学猜想的证明依赖于必要的数学进展和合适的数学家;接着对这两个因素进行分析;由于对黎曼猜想的证明来说,无论是所需要的数学知识和方法是否具备还是是否有合适的数学家二者都是不确定的,因而无法肯定该猜想什么时候才能被证明出来。     

Multi-model ensembles in climate science: Mathematical structures and expert judgements

Projections of future climate change cannot rely on a single model. It has become common to rely on multiple simulations generated by Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs), especially to quantify the uncertainty about what would constitute an adequate model structure. But, as Parker points out (2018), one of the remaining philosophically interesting questions is: “How can ensemble studies be designed so that they probe uncertainty in desired ways?” This paper offers two interpretations of what General Circulation Models (GCMs) are and how MMEs made of GCMs should be designed. In the first interpretation, models are combinations of modules and parameterisations; an MME is obtained by “plugging and playing” with interchangeable modules and parameterisations. In the second interpretation, models are aggregations of expert judgements that result from a history of epistemic decisions made by scientists about the choice of representations; an MME is a sampling of expert judgements from modelling teams. We argue that, while the two interpretations involve distinct domains from philosophy of science and social epistemology, they both could be used in a complementary manner in order to explore ways of designing better MMEs.     

浅谈极限在《数学分析》课程中的作用

该文首先介绍极限定义的形成,发展和完善,在了解极限定义的基础上来进一步理解极限理论,极限理论是微积分的基础,其次主要介绍了极限在连续定义、导数定义、积分定义等方面的应用.     

基于多点冲击的侧面碰撞台车试验方法

通过对侧面碰撞过程中车门内饰板运动过程的分析,简化车门侵入速度,建立了一种基于质量弹簧模型的可以复现车门板上多个点运动的侧面碰撞台车试验方法.在此基础上建立了基于MADYMO软件的侧面碰撞台车-假人有限元模型.通过仿真计算验证表明,基于多点运动复现的侧面碰撞台车试验得到的假人伤害值与整车试验得到的假人伤害值有很好的一致性.结果表明,该台车试验方法可以很好地复现车门内饰板、座椅与假人之间的相互作用关系,而且该方法非常易于在工程上实现,可以满足工程应用的需要.     

水泥-聚苯乙烯轻质材料的准静态压缩力学行为

根据Gibson-Ashby模型中的多孔材料力学行为理论,对水泥-聚苯乙烯轻质材料的准静态压缩应力-应变曲线进行了预测,并通过试验对其进行验证,分析了纤维、乳胶粉、压缩比及养护方式对应力-应变曲线的影响.讨论了脆性抗压强度的变化规律,根据Gibson模型的强度理论拟合、分析了抗压强度与密度的关系.结果表明:材料的压缩应力-应变曲线可根据Gibson理论中弹性多孔材料和弹脆性多孔材料的应力-应变曲线进行复合,预测结果与实验结果基本一致;纤维、乳胶粉、压缩比和养护方式对曲线的线弹性、平台、密实化三个阶段均有一定的影响,也影响材料的脆性抗压强度;纯水泥组、加纤维组和高压缩比组脆性抗压强度的拟合相关性较高,而由于乳胶粉和蒸汽养护影响了孔壁的破坏强度,所以该两组的拟合相关性较低.